annotate scripts/signal/arch_fit.m @ 31225:3eab70385569

sparse-xpow.cc: Use faster multiplication technique, this time for complex
author Arun Giridhar <arungiridhar@gmail.com>
date Sun, 11 Sep 2022 13:53:38 -0400
parents 796f54d4ddbf
children 597f3ee61a48
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1 ########################################################################
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2 ##
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3 ## Copyright (C) 1995-2022 The Octave Project Developers
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4 ##
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5 ## See the file COPYRIGHT.md in the top-level directory of this
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6 ## distribution or <https://octave.org/copyright/>.
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7 ##
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8 ## This file is part of Octave.
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9 ##
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10 ## Octave is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify it
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11 ## under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
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12 ## the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or
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13 ## (at your option) any later version.
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14 ##
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15 ## Octave is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but
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16 ## WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of
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17 ## MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the
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18 ## GNU General Public License for more details.
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19 ##
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20 ## You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License
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21 ## along with Octave; see the file COPYING. If not, see
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22 ## <https://www.gnu.org/licenses/>.
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23 ##
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24 ########################################################################
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26 ## -*- texinfo -*-
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27 ## @deftypefn {} {[@var{a}, @var{b}] =} arch_fit (@var{y}, @var{x}, @var{p}, @var{iter}, @var{gamma}, @var{a0}, @var{b0})
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28 ## Fit an ARCH regression model to the time series @var{y} using the scoring
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29 ## algorithm in @nospell{Engle's} original ARCH paper.
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30 ##
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31 ## The model is
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32 ##
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33 ## @example
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34 ## @group
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35 ## y(t) = b(1) * x(t,1) + @dots{} + b(k) * x(t,k) + e(t),
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36 ## h(t) = a(1) + a(2) * e(t-1)^2 + @dots{} + a(p+1) * e(t-p)^2
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37 ## @end group
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38 ## @end example
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39 ##
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40 ## @noindent
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41 ## in which @math{e(t)} is @math{N(0, h(t))}, given a time-series vector
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42 ## @var{y} up to time @math{t-1} and a matrix of (ordinary) regressors @var{x}
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43 ## up to @math{t}. The order of the regression of the residual variance is
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44 ## specified by @var{p}.
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45 ##
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46 ## If invoked as @code{arch_fit (@var{y}, @var{k}, @var{p})} with a positive
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47 ## integer @var{k}, fit an ARCH(@var{k}, @var{p}) process, i.e., do the above
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48 ## with the @math{t}-th row of @var{x} given by
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49 ##
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50 ## @example
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51 ## [1, y(t-1), @dots{}, y(t-k)]
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52 ## @end example
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53 ##
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54 ## Optionally, one can specify the number of iterations @var{iter}, the
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55 ## updating factor @var{gamma}, and initial values @math{a0} and @math{b0}
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56 ## for the scoring algorithm.
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57 ## @end deftypefn
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58
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59 function [a, b] = arch_fit (y, x, p, iter, gamma, a0, b0)
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60
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61 if (nargin < 3 || nargin == 6)
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62 print_usage ();
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63 endif
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64
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65 if (! (isvector (y)))
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66 error ("arch_fit: Y must be a vector");
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67 endif
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68
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69 T = length (y);
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70 y = reshape (y, T, 1);
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71 [rx, cx] = size (x);
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72 if ((rx == 1) && (cx == 1))
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73 x = autoreg_matrix (y, x);
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74 elseif (! (rx == T))
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75 error ("arch_fit: either rows (X) == length (Y), or X is a scalar");
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76 endif
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77
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78 [T, k] = size (x);
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79
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80 if (nargin == 7)
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81 a = a0;
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82 b = b0;
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83 e = y - x * b;
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84 else
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85 [b, v_b, e] = ols (y, x);
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86 a = [v_b, (zeros (1, p))]';
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87 if (nargin < 5)
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88 gamma = 0.1;
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89 if (nargin < 4)
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90 iter = 50;
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91 endif
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92 endif
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93 endif
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94
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95 esq = e.^2;
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96 Z = autoreg_matrix (esq, p);
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97
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98 for i = 1 : iter
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99 h = Z * a;
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100 tmp = esq ./ h.^2 - 1 ./ h;
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101 s = 1 ./ h(1:T-p);
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102 for j = 1 : p
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103 s -= a(j+1) * tmp(j+1:T-p+j);
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104 endfor
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105 r = 1 ./ h(1:T-p);
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106 for j = 1:p
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107 r += 2 * h(j+1:T-p+j).^2 .* esq(1:T-p);
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108 endfor
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109 r = sqrt (r);
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110 X_tilde = x(1:T-p, :) .* (r * ones (1,k));
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111 e_tilde = e(1:T-p) .*s ./ r;
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112 delta_b = inv (X_tilde' * X_tilde) * X_tilde' * e_tilde;
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113 b += gamma * delta_b;
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114 e = y - x * b;
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115 esq = e .^ 2;
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116 Z = autoreg_matrix (esq, p);
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117 h = Z * a;
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118 f = esq ./ h - ones (T,1);
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119 Z_tilde = Z ./ (h * ones (1, p+1));
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120 delta_a = inv (Z_tilde' * Z_tilde) * Z_tilde' * f;
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121 a += gamma * delta_a;
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122 endfor
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123
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124 endfunction